The study of the effects of liquidity and credit risk on bank stability in Iran using the Z-score index

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Mesters, Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran

2 Professor, Economics, Yazd University, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of liquidity and credit risk on the banking stability in Iran using the unbiased Z-score index. This investigation finds significance with regard to the subjects of bankruptcy and banking crisis. In order to attain the purposes of this research, a sample of 18 Iranian banks for the period of 2007-2017 was used and three main hypotheses were constructed. The Dynamic Panel data approach was applied for the estimation of the model along with the use of the two-step System GMM. The results indicate that credit risk and liquidity risk significantly reduce banking stability but the effect of their interaction is not significant. The findings of the study provide bank managers with better understanding of bank risks and the efforts aimed at managing liquidity and credit risks. It is shown that an increase in the capital has significantly improved banking stability, while inefficiency, return on assets (based on risk-return tradeoff), loan growth, GDP per capita (based on Minsky's financial instability hypothesis) and sanctions on banks have had significant negative effects on banking stability.

Keywords

Main Subjects


  1. اخلاقی مدیری، ندا. خشنودی، عبدالله. و هراتی، جواد (1395). "بررسی اثر دخالت دولت روی آسیب‌پذیری مالی بخش بانکی در ایران". فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی 17(4): 172-147.
  2. اسکندری، محمد (1391). بررسی ارتباط بین تمرکز و ثبات مالی در نظام بانکداری ایران، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی، مؤسسه آموزش عالی شهید اشرفی اصفهان.
  3. اشرف‌زاده، حمیدرضا. و مهرگان، نادر (1393). اقتصادسنجی پانل دیتای پیشرفته، موسسه مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی، نور علم.
  4. خوش‌طینت، محسن. امیدی نژاد، محمد. و رضوانیان، منیره (1394). "اثر ساختار تأمین مالی بر ریسک درماندگی بانک‌ها". فصلنامه مطالعات مالی و بانکداری اسلامی 1(1): 27-1.
  5. خوشنودی، عبدالله. صباغ کرمانی، مجید. یاوری، کاظم. و حسینی‌نسب، ابراهیم (1391). "بررسی آسیب‌پذیری مالی بخش بانکی و عوامل موثر بر آن با استفاده از شاخص z-score". مجله علمی پژوهشی سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی 4(7): 100-80.
  6. دارستانی، حسام ذالبگی (1393). "عوامل موثر بر ثبات در شبکه بانکی ایران". فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی 7(20): 327-307.
  7. سوری، علی (1395). اقتصادسنجی همراه با کاربرد Eviews& Stata، تهران، نشر فرهنگ‌شناسی.
  8. طالبی، محمد. و سلگی، محمد (1396). "بررسی رابطه بین ریسک و نسبت کفایت سرمایه: شواهدی از بانک‌های ایرانی". فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی 9(30): 543-513.
  9. میرباقری هیر، ناصر. ناهیدی امیرخیز، محمدرضا. و شکوهی فرد، سیامک (1395). "ارزیابی ثبات مالی و تبیین عوامل موثر بر ثبات مالی بانک‌‌های کشور". فصلنامه سیاست‌های مالی و اقتصادی4(15): 42-23.
  10. میشکین، فردریک اس (1389). اقتصاد پول و بانکداری و بازارهای مالی، حسین قضاوی؛ موسسه عالی آموزش بانکداری ایران، بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
    1. Abdul Rahman, A. (2010). "Financing Structure and Insolvency Risk Exposure of Islamic Banks". Journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 24: 419-440.
  11. Abel, S. Le Roux, P. & Mutandwa, L. (2018). "Competition and Bank Stability". International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 8(3): 86-94.
  12. Acharya, V. V. & Mora, N. (2015). "A Crisis of Banks as Liquidity Providers". The Journal of Finance 70(1): 1-43.
  13. Acharya, V. & Naqvi, H. (2012). "The Seeds of a Crisis: A Theory of Bank Liquidity and Risk Taking Over the Business Cycle". Journal of Financial Economics 106(2): 349-366.
  14. Alawode, A. and Al sadek, M. (2008). "What is Financial Stability". Financial Stability Paper Series 1: 2-26.
  15. Arellano, M. & Bover, O. (1995). "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models". Journal of Econometrics 68(1): 29-51.
  16. Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models". Journal of Econometrics 87(1): 115-143.
  17. Bokpin, G.A. (2016). "Bank Governance, Regulation and Risk-Taking in Ghana". J. Afr. Bus 17(1): 52-68.
  18. Brahmana, R. Kontesa, M. & Gilbert, R. (2018). "Income Diversification and Bank Performance: Evidence from Malaysian Banks". Economics Bulletin 38(2): 799-809.
  19. Brunnermeier, M. Crocket, A. Goodhart, C. Persaud, A. & Shin, H. (2009). "The Fundamental Principles of Financial Regulation". Geneva Reports on the World Economy 11 (International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB)-Centre for Economic Policy Research (CPER)).
  20. Čihák, M. & Hesse, H. (2010). "Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: An Empirical Analysis". Journal of Financial Services Research 38(2-3): 95-113.
  21. Deltuvaite, V. (2010). "The Concentration-Stability Relationship in the Banking System: An Emprical Researsh". Economics and Management.
  22. Diamond, D.W. (1984). "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring". Rev.Econ.Stud 51: 393-414.
  23. Ghenimi, A. Chaibi, H. & Omri, M. A. B. (2017). "The Effects of Liquidity Risk and Credit Risk on Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region". Borsa Istanbul Review 17(4): 238-248.
  24. Ibrahim, M. H. & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2017). "Do We Need Bigger Islamic Banks, An Assessment of Bank Stability". Journal of Multinational Financial Management 40: 77-91.
  25. Imbierowicz, B. & Rauch, C. (2014). "The Relationship between Liquidity Risk and Credit Risk in Banks". Journal of Banking & Finance 40: 242-256.
  26. Ivičić, L. Kunovac, D. & Ljubaj, I. (2008). "Measuring Bank Insolvency Risk in CEE Countries". Croatian National Bank Working Paper.
  27. Joseph, C. (2013). Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management, Retrieved from https://ebookcentral.proquest.com
  28. King, M. (2013). Fisheries Biology, Assessment and Management, John Wiley & Sons.
  29. Maji, S. G. Dey, S. and Jha, A. K. (2011). "Insolvency Risk of Selected Indian Commercial Banks: a Comparative Analysis". International Journal of Research in Commerce, Economics and Management 1(5): 120-124.
  30. Mare, D. S. Moreira, F. & Rossi, R. (2017). "Nonstationary Z-score Measures". European Journal of Operational Research 260(1): 348-358.
  31. Rajhi, W. & Hassairi, S. A. (2013). "Islamic Banks and Financial Stability: a Comparative Empirical Analysis between MENA and Southeast Asian Countries". Région et développement 37(1): 1-31.
  32. Roy, A. D. (1952). "Safety First and the Holding of Assets". Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 431-449.
  33. Shafik, S. (2014). Financial Stability and Liquidity: Evidence from Conventional and Islamic Banks in the GCC Rigion, Doctorial Thesis, University of Newcastle.
  34. Srairi, S. (2013). "Ownership Structure and Risk-Taking Behaviour in Conventionaland Islamic Banks: Evidence for MENA Countries". Borsa Istanbul Review 13(4): 115-127.
  35. Stiroh, K. J. & Rumble, A. (2006). "The Dark Side of Diversification: The Case of US Financial Holding Companies". Journal of Banking & Finance 30(8): 2131-2161.
  36. Tan, Y. (2016). "The Impacts of Risk and Competition on Bank Profitability in China". Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 40: 85-110.
  37. Tankoyeva, V. Bazzana, F. & Gabriele, R. (2018). The Stability of the Financial System: An Analysis of the Determinants of Russian Bank Failures, Research Handbook of Investing in the Triple Bottom Line, 114.
  38. Trad, N. Trabelsi, M. A. & Goux, J. F. (2017). "Risk and Profitability of Islamic Banks: A Religious Deception or an Alternative Solution? ". European Research on Management and Business Economics 23(1): 40-45.
  39. Van Greuning, H. & Brajovic Bratanovic, S. (2003). Analyzing and Managing Banking Risk: a Framework for Assessing Corporate Governance and Financial Risk Management, Washington, DC: World Bank.
  40. Van Greuning, H. & Iqbal, Z. (2008). Risk Analysis for Islamic Banks, World Bank Publications.