Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran. Member of Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Accounting , Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University.Tehran, Iran
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran. Member of Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Rapid urbanization has become a dominant phenomenon in the world, and neglecting the status of the housing price affordability may result in marginalization and its negative social and cultural aftermath. Studies show that the urban housing affordability index in Iran which has sometimes been unaffordable is only under the influence of housing sector cycles and has been unaffordable since 2002. However, no action has yet been taken to improve this index. One of the factors that can affect housing affordability index is the Dutch disease effects of Iran’s economy. Therefore, in this study, the behavior of the urban housing price affordability is analyzed, and the effect of the oil revenue shock on the affordability of housing prices is investigated using the SVAR model. According to the results of the econometrics model, the fluctuation of the urban housing price affordability index exceeds the short-term imbalance. So, due to the widening gap between household income and urban housing prices, the convergence of these two variables is not proved. In addition, the analysis shows that, although the impact of oil revenue shocks on the affordability of housing prices is negligible in the short term, it explains 6.6 percent of the volatility fluctuation in nine seasons of the shock, and its effect eventually fades away after 10 seasons.
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