1
Faculty member of Economic Research Center, TarbiatModares University
2
Professor of economics
3
M.A. in Economics
Abstract
In this paper, the developments in employment have been studied by using a shift-share technique and the statistical census data of housing and population in Bam over the 1375-1385 period, i.e. pre- and post-earthquake. The existing data indicate that the employment structure in Bam has changed dramatically due to the occurrence of an earthquake in the study period, and that the structural change in terms of employees’ number has been industry-oriented and against-services. Indeed, the economic structure of this city has shifted toward industry and agriculture sectors. According to research results, the growth of employees in Bam has been greater than its share of national growth. One reason for this inappropriate growth is the existing large and positive competitive growth despite the negativity of structural growth. In other words, there were competitive advantages in Bam in comparison to the rest of the country despite inappropriateness of the activities combination over the study period, This has led to the fact that the competitive advantage has generally prevailed the structural growth and resulted in increasing employment in Bam more than it has been anticipated.
جمشیدی، رمضان (1378). تجزیه و تحلیل روند اشتغال و تغییرات ساختاری آن در بخش صنعت کشور، پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
سبحانی، حسن. و درویشی، باقر (1384). "بررسی مزیت‌های نسبی و تحلیل ساختاری اشتغال در استان ایلام". مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی شماره 70.
صباغ کرمانی، مجید (1380). اقتصاد منطقه‌ای (تئوری و مدل‌ها)، چاپ اول، انتشارات سمت.
عسگری، علی. و گلی، علی (1378). "بررسی تحولات رشد اقتصادی استان همدان و شهرستان‌های تابعه طی دوره 1355-1375 برای فعالیت‌های عمده اقتصادی". گزارش طرح تحقیقاتی.
مرکز آمار ایران، سرشماری‌های نفوس و مسکن سال‌های 1375 و 1385.
مهرگان، نادر. و صنعت خانی، محبوبه (1386). "تحلیل تغییرات رقابتی، ملی و ساختاری صادرات غیر نفتی طی برنامه‌های اول تا سوم توسعه". ﺳـﻮﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮاﻧﺲ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻛﺸﺎورزی اﻳﺮان.
مهرگان، نادر (1386). "شناسایی و تعیین اقدامات اولویت‌دار برای گسترش مشاغل نوین در بخش‌های مختلف استان مرکزی". گزارش طرح تحقیقاتی.
ب: منابع و مآخذ لاتین
Chen, Wei (2007). "An Application of Shift-Share Model to Economic Analysis of County". World Journal of Modeling and Simulation 3(2): 90-99.
Chunyun, Shi, Jie, Zhang, Yang, Yang and Zhang, Zhou (2007). "Shift-Share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness—A Case of Jiangsu Province". Chinese Geographical Science 17(2).
Gabe, Todd M. (2006). "Growth of Creative Occupations in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: A Shift-Share Analysis". Growth and Change 37(3): 396-415.
Kian-Heng, Peh and Fot-chiwong (1999). "Growth in Singapore’s Export Marets 1991-96: A Shift-share Analysis". Asian Economic Journal 13(3).
Klein, Dajana, Kies, Uwe and Schulte, Andreas (2009). "Regional Employment Trends of Wood-Based Industries in Germany’s Forest Cluster: a Comparative Shift-Share Analysis of Post-Reunification Development". European Journal of Forest Research 128(3).
Knudsen, Daniel C. (2000). "Shift-Share Analysis: Further Examination of Models for the Description of Economic Change". Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 34: 177-198.
Maudos, Joaquín, Pastor, José Manuel and Serrano, Lorenzo (2008). "Explaining the US–EU Productivity Growth Gap: Structural Change vs. Intra-Sectoral Effect". Economics Letters Vol. xx.
Stimson, Robert J, Stough, Roger R and Roberts, Brian H. (2006). "Traditional Tools for Measuring and Evaluating Regional Economic Performance I: Economic Base and Shift-Share Analysis". Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Second Edition.
Mostafavi, S. M. H., Mehregan, N., & Rezaei, R. (2013). Earthquake and its Effect on Employment Structure in Bam. The Journal of Economic Policy, 5(9), 111-127.
MLA
Seyyed Mohammad Hasan Mostafavi; Nader Mehregan; Rohoolah Rezaei. "Earthquake and its Effect on Employment Structure in Bam". The Journal of Economic Policy, 5, 9, 2013, 111-127.
HARVARD
Mostafavi, S. M. H., Mehregan, N., Rezaei, R. (2013). 'Earthquake and its Effect on Employment Structure in Bam', The Journal of Economic Policy, 5(9), pp. 111-127.
VANCOUVER
Mostafavi, S. M. H., Mehregan, N., Rezaei, R. Earthquake and its Effect on Employment Structure in Bam. The Journal of Economic Policy, 2013; 5(9): 111-127.
)