بررسی وضعیت پایای اقتصاد ایران در شرایط بانکداری ذخیره کامل

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولیعصر (عج) رفسنجان

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولیعصر رفسنجان

10.29252/epj.2020.10534.1844

چکیده

کارکرد بانکداری ذخیره جزئی در ایجاد پول خصوصی از گذشته دور تاکنون موجب بروز مشکلات اقتصادی چون رکود، تورم، افزایش بدهی‌های عمومی و... شده است. امروزه بانکداری ذخیره کامل به عنوان راه حل پیشنهادی برای اصلاحات، توسط بسیاری از اقتصادانان مورد حمایت قرار گرفته است. در مطالعه حاضر، بانکداری ذخیره کامل با استفاده از مدل سازگاری انباشت-جریان (SFC)، برای اقتصاد ایران، مدل‌سازی شده است. طبق نتایج به دست آمده از مدل، خلق پول از طریق هزینه‌های دولت در مواقع کسری بودجه دولت در شرایط بانکداری ذخیره کامل، منجر به تورم نزدیک به صفر می‌شود، اشتغال نیز به سمت اشتغال کامل همگرا می‌گردد. با اینکه میزان بدهی‌های دولت ثابت باقی می‌ماند اما میزان ثروت خانوارها افزایش می‌یابد. میزان سپرده‌های بانکی و وام‌ها نیز در این شرایط افزایش می‌یابد و نقدینگی بانک‌ها در سطح مطلوب خود قرار می‌گیرد. همچنین طبق نتایج به دست آمده، افزایش مخارج جاری دولت منجر به افزایش تخصیص منابع نفتی به مخارج سرمایه‌ای و کاهش منابع صندوق توسعه ملی می‌شود اما در حالت پایدار جدید، کل منابع نفتی به سمت صندوق توسعه ملی حرکت می‌کند و دولت در این حالت، مازاد بودجه کوچکی را تجربه می‌کند که به طور دائمی ادامه می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A survey of the steadiness of Iran's economy under full-reserve banking

نویسندگان [English]

  • Davoud Mahmoudinia 1
  • Leyla Borhani 2
  • Omid Sattari 1
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Valiasr University of Rafsanjan
2 Master of Economics, Valiasr University of Rafsanjan
چکیده [English]

Since long, fractional reserve banking has played a role in creating private money and caused economic problems such as depression, inflation, increase of public debts, and so on. Currently, full-reserve banking proposed as a solution to make reforms is supported by many economists. This study presents a stock-flow consistent model of full-reserve banking for Iran's economy. Money creation at the time of government budget deficit under full-reserve banking can provide almost zero inflation and full employment. The amount of government debts has remained unchanged, but the wealth of households has increased. The amount of bank deposits and loans has also increased in these conditions, and the liquidity of banks has been at its optimum level. This study also included the oil sector (model innovation) to examine the process of allocating oil resources to the national development under full-reserve banking. It is found that an increase in the current expenditures will increase the allocation of oil resources to capital expenditure and reduce the resources of the development funds. However, in a new steady state, all the oil revenues move toward the national development funds and, in this case, the government experiences a small budget surplus that will persistent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Full-reserve banking
  • Fractional reserve banking
  • Government money
  • Stock-flow consistency
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