بررسی وضعیت پایای اقتصاد ایران در شرایط بانکداری ذخیره کامل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولیعصر (عج) رفسنجان

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولیعصر رفسنجان

چکیده

کارکرد بانکداری ذخیره جزئی در ایجاد پول خصوصی از گذشته دور تاکنون موجب بروز مشکلات اقتصادی چون رکود، تورم، افزایش بدهی‌های عمومی و... شده است. امروزه بانکداری ذخیره کامل به عنوان راه حل پیشنهادی برای اصلاحات، توسط بسیاری از اقتصادانان مورد حمایت قرار گرفته است. در مطالعه حاضر، بانکداری ذخیره کامل با استفاده از مدل سازگاری انباشت-جریان (SFC)، برای اقتصاد ایران، مدل‌سازی شده است. طبق نتایج به دست آمده از مدل، خلق پول از طریق هزینه‌های دولت در مواقع کسری بودجه دولت در شرایط بانکداری ذخیره کامل، منجر به تورم نزدیک به صفر می‌شود، اشتغال نیز به سمت اشتغال کامل همگرا می‌گردد. با اینکه میزان بدهی‌های دولت ثابت باقی می‌ماند اما میزان ثروت خانوارها افزایش می‌یابد. میزان سپرده‌های بانکی و وام‌ها نیز در این شرایط افزایش می‌یابد و نقدینگی بانک‌ها در سطح مطلوب خود قرار می‌گیرد. همچنین طبق نتایج به دست آمده، افزایش مخارج جاری دولت منجر به افزایش تخصیص منابع نفتی به مخارج سرمایه‌ای و کاهش منابع صندوق توسعه ملی می‌شود اما در حالت پایدار جدید، کل منابع نفتی به سمت صندوق توسعه ملی حرکت می‌کند و دولت در این حالت، مازاد بودجه کوچکی را تجربه می‌کند که به طور دائمی ادامه می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A survey of the steadiness of Iran's economy under full-reserve banking

نویسندگان [English]

  • Davoud Mahmoudinia 1
  • Leyla Borhani 2
  • Omid Sattari 1
1 Assistant Professor of Economics, Valiasr University of Rafsanjan
2 Master of Economics, Valiasr University of Rafsanjan
چکیده [English]

Since long, fractional reserve banking has played a role in creating private money and caused economic problems such as depression, inflation, increase of public debts, and so on. Currently, full-reserve banking proposed as a solution to make reforms is supported by many economists. This study presents a stock-flow consistent model of full-reserve banking for Iran's economy. Money creation at the time of government budget deficit under full-reserve banking can provide almost zero inflation and full employment. The amount of government debts has remained unchanged, but the wealth of households has increased. The amount of bank deposits and loans has also increased in these conditions, and the liquidity of banks has been at its optimum level. This study also included the oil sector (model innovation) to examine the process of allocating oil resources to the national development under full-reserve banking. It is found that an increase in the current expenditures will increase the allocation of oil resources to capital expenditure and reduce the resources of the development funds. However, in a new steady state, all the oil revenues move toward the national development funds and, in this case, the government experiences a small budget surplus that will persistent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Full-reserve banking
  • Fractional reserve banking
  • Government money
  • Stock-flow consistency

مراجع

  1. دلالی اصفهانی، رحیم. و مجاهدی موخر، محمدمهدی (1391). "الگوی قرض‌دهی در اندیشه اسلامی و مقایسه آن با الگوهای رقیب اقتصاد متعارف". ماهنامه بررسی مسائل و سیاست‌های اقتصادی 12(1): 84-69.
    1. Allais, M. (1947). Economie et Interet: Exposition Nouvelle des Problemes Fondamentaux Relatifs au Role Economique du Taux de L'interet et de Leur Solutions, Paris, Librarie Des Publication Officielles.‏
    2. Angell, J. W. (1935). "The 100 Percent Reserve Plan". The Quarterly Journal of Economics 50(1): 1-35.‏
    3. AskAri, H. and kricHene, M. N. (2014). "100 Percent Reserve Banking and the Path to a Single-country Gold Standard". Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics 19(1): 29-64.
    4. Benes, J. and Kumhof, M. (2012). "The Chicago Plan Revisited". IMF Working Paper No. 12/202, International Monetary Fund, Washington. D.C.
    5. Chiarella, C. Flaschel, P. Hartmann, F. and Proaño, C. R. (2012). "Stock Market Booms, Endogenous Credit Creation and the Implications of Broad and Narrow Banking for Macroeconomic Stability". Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 83(3): 410-423.‏
    6. ‏Currie, L. (1934). A Proposed Revision of the Monetary System of the United States, Cambridge, Harvard University Press‏.
    7. Dimand, R. W. (1993). "100 Percent Money: Irving Fisher and Banking Reform in the 1930s". History of Economic Ideas 59-76.
    8. Dixhoorn, C. V. (2013). "Full Reserve Banking: An Analysis of four Monetary Reform Plans". The Sustainable Finance Lab, Utrecht . ‏
    9. Doak, E. J. (1988). "Islamic Interest-Free Banking and 100 Percent Money: Comment on Khan". Staff Papers 35(3): 534-536.‏
    10. Fisher, I. (1937). "Note Suggested by Review of 100 Percent Money". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 100(2): 296-298.‏
    11. Friedman, M. (1948). "A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability". American Economic Review 38: 245-64.‏‏
    12. Godley, W. and Lavoie, M. (2012). Monetary Economics: an Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth, Second Edition [First Edition published in 2006]. Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Hart, Albert G. (1935). "The “Chicago Plan” of Banking Reform: IA Proposal for Making Monetary Management Effective in the United States". The Review of Economic Studies 2(2): 104-116.‏
    14. Hayek, F. A. (1967). Studies in Philosophy, Politics and Economics, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.‏
    15. Jackson, A. and Dyson, B. (2012). Modernising Money: Why our Monetary System is Broken and how it can be Fixed. London, Positive Money.‏
    16. Kay, J. A. (2009). Narrow Banking: The Reform of Banking Regulation, United Kingdom, Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI).
    17. Khan, M. S. (1986). "Islamic Interest-free Banking: a Theoretical Analysis". Staff Papers 33(1): 1-27‏.‏
    18. Khan, M. S. & Mirakhor, A. (1989). "The Financial System and Monetary Policy in an Islamic Economy". Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics 1(1): 39-57
    19. Kotlikoff, L. J. (2010)." Jimmy Stewart is dead: Ending the World's Ongoing Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking". John Wiley & Sons.‏ Articles published in the Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics 1(1): 39-57.‏
    20. Laina, P. (2015). "Proposals for Full-reserve Banking: a Historical Survey from David Ricardo to Martin Wolf". Economic Thought 4(2): 1-19.
    21. Laina, P. (2015)." Money Creation under Full-reserve Banking: A Stock-flow Consistent Model ". Working Paper (No. 851), Annandale-on-Hudson, NY: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.‏
    22. Lehmann, F. (1936). "100 % Money". The Johns Hopkins University Press 3(1): 37-56.
    23. Musgrave, R. S. (2014). "The Solution is Full Reserve/100% Reserve Banking".‏ MPRA Paper Germany: University Library of Munich, Available from https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen. De/57955/1/MPRA _paper _57955.pdf
    24. Nikiforos, M. and Zezza, G. (2017). "Stock‐Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey". Journal of Economic Surveys 31(5): 1204-1239.‏
    25. Phillips, R. J. (1992). "Credit Markets and Narrow Banking". Economics Working Paper Archive wp_77, Levy Economics Institute.
    26. Ricardo, D. (1951). The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo/ed, America, Piero Sraffa, University Press.‏
    27. Sigurjonsson, F. (2015). Monetary Reform: A better Monetary System for Iceland, Iceland: Report Commissioned by the Prime Minister of Iceland.
    28. Simons, H. C. (1934). A Positive Program for Laissez Faire: Some Proposals for a Liberal Economic Policy, America, University of Chicago Press.‏
    29. Simons, H. Cox, G. Director, A. Douglas, P. Hart, A. Knight, F. & Schultz, H. (1933). "Banking and Currency Reform". Manuscript, Printed in Warren Samuels, ed, Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology, Archival Supplement, 4.‏
    30. Soddy, F. (1933). Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt: the Solution of the Economic Paradox, George Allen and Unwin Ltd, London, Britons Publishing Company.
    31. Tobin, J. (1987). "A Case for Preserving Regulatory Distinctions". Challenge 30(5): 10-17.‏
    32. Tobin, J. )1982(. "Money and Finance in the Macroeconomic Process". Journal of Money, Creditand Banking 14(2): 171-204.
    33. Yamaguchi, K. (2010). "On the Liquidation of Government Debt under A Debt-Free Money System". Modeling the American Monetary Act. Korea: Doshiha University.
سیاست گذاری اقتصادی
دوره 11، شماره 22
اسفند 1398
صفحه 191-225

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار