نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
This study aims to investigate the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the quality of financial information disclosure among companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population consists of 102 firms operating in six industries over the period 2011 to 2024. To measure the independent variable, a macroeconomic uncertainty index was constructed using a composite indicator based on the volatilities of asset markets (stock market, exchange rate, gold price, and inflation rate), employing GARCH models and principal component analysis (PCA). The quality of financial disclosure was inversely measured using the absolute value of discretionary accruals, estimated through the modified Jones model. To test the hypothesis, a panel data regression with random effects was used. The results show that an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with an increase in the magnitude of discretionary accruals and, consequently, a decrease in the quality of financial disclosure. This effect is statistically significant in the petrochemical, cement, pharmaceutical, and steel industries, while it is not significant in the auto parts and non-metallic mineral industries. Thus, industry type plays a significant moderating role in this relationship. The findings indicate that under uncertain economic conditions, managers tend to adopt conservative behavior and restrict disclosed information rather than enhancing transparency. The results, while confirming the political cost hypothesis and agency theory, have important implications for investors, managers, and regulatory bodies, and emphasize the need for intensified supervisory oversight of financial reporting during turbulent periods.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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