تغییرات در ارزبری فعالیت‌های تولیدی اقتصاد ایران با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل تجزیه ساختاری

Extended Abstract
Purpose: The high exchange intensity of economic sectors is not desirable in specific conditions such as embargo, economic wars, and dependence of the economy on oil. In Iran, production depends on the currency obtained from oil. This problem may cause Dutch disease in the country's economy and various activities to cope with the recession.
In addition, the importation of intermediate goods constitutes more than 60% of the imports of Iran. With this level of dependence, the vulnerability of Iran's economy to currency wars and commercial and financial sanctions is significant. Therefore, imports in Iran's economy need to be managed and optimized. Hence, in this article, the factors affecting the exchange intensity changes of Iran's economic sectors are calculated in order to provide the possibility of optimizing intermediate imports.
Methodology: The methodology of this research consists of two parts. First, a table is prepared for the desired output, and then it is used for analysis. In order to use the symmetric input-output table of activities, first, some tables are extracted from the consumption and supply values in recent years. Since the exchange rate in production sectors depends on the imports of intermediate goods and services, it is measured by intermediate imports and their changes. To eliminate the effects of the price changes in the 2011-2016 period, the fixed price analysis is performed. The second step of the work is the use of Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) method to examine the factors affecting the change of the exchange rate in Iran's manufacturing sectors from 2011 to 2016. The required data are provided from the input-output tables of the Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran, the Statistical Center of Iran and the customs import statistics of the Islamic Republic of Iran in these years.
Findings and Discussion: Symmetric input-output tables of Iran have been prepared for 87 activities from 2011 to 2016. These tables were the basis of research calculations. To compare the tables of each, the selected tables have been harmonized according to the International Standard of Industry Classification (ISIC). Finally, through  the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA), the effect of each of the factors of the import structure of activities (R), the share of imports in the production of activities (), the structure of production (L), the degree of mobility of activities in the economy (Z), the structure of final product components (S), final product composition (T), and total final product (O) have been calculated based on the changes in the valuation of activities from 2011 to 2016. The total production of the country in 2011 was 21920 trillion Rials at the price of 2016. This figure reached 23262 trillion Rials in 2016, with a growth of 6%.
The calculation results show that, among the factors of the study, the effect of the change in the structure and the effect on the change in the desire for the activities from 2011 to 2016 were very insignificant. However, the changes in the production of three productive factors, the degree of mobilizing activities in the economy, and the composition of the final product have reduced the economic value of the economy. On the contrary, the changes of the contribution factors in the production of activities, the structure of the final product, and the sum of the final products have increased the desire of the production activities. In the meantime, the change in the production structure is the most important factor in reducing the exchange rate, and the change in the share of production in the activities has been the main factor in the enhancement of Iran's production activities. Also, the findings of the research show that the increase of final products production from 2011 to 2016 has led to an increase in the value of all economic activities.
Conclusion and Policy Implications: According to the findings of the research, the exchange rate for the supply of intermediate goods has increased by 231.7 trillion Rials. In the meantime, the final products have the greatest role in increasing the exchange rate. In contrast to the share of imports in the production of the sectors, it has the greatest role in reducing the exchange rate of the production sectors. At the level of production sectors, the "Public Affairs Administration" sector, with 1.51 trillion Rials of exchange rate decrease, has had the largest decrease among 78 production sectors of Iran. Moreover, the "animal breeding" sector, with an increase of 2.54 trillion Rials, has had the largest increase in the exchange rate of 78 economic sectors of the country.