بررسی عوامل اقتصادی موثر بر نرخ تورم در استان لرستان: رهیافت فازی

Purpose: Iran's economy has been struggling with double-digit inflation for years. According to the published report of the central bank, Iran's economy has experienced single-digit inflation for only 4 years in the past 44 years and double-digit inflation for the rest of the years. Even during 5 consecutive years leading to 2024, the inflation rate in Iran's economy has been above 40% and has had the longest duration in this period. The continuation of this situation is considered a serious warning for Iran's economy. Because in inflationary conditions, uncertainty about the future increases and accordingly the motivation for new investments and the trend of productive activities decreases. On the other hand, the level of inflation is not the same in all parts of the country, and in this regard, there is a significant difference between the provinces of the country.  Although the use of macroeconomic tools can reduce the inflation rate in the whole country, according to the characteristics of each province, the amount of inflation rate reduction or increase due to macroeconomic policies will be different. Therefore, in addition to identifying the major factors affecting inflation in the entire country, it is very important and necessary; Identifying factors affecting inflation in each province according to the characteristics of that province is also of great importance and will be necessary. The higher inflation rate in Lorestan province compared to other provinces will be due to various factors, the identification of which requires a scientific and written research. By identifying the effective factors in the higher inflation rate in Lorestan province compared to other provinces, practical solutions can be found in order to control inflation. Therefore, considering the importance of this issue in Lorestan province, in the present research, the factors affecting the inflation rate in Lorestan province have been investigated.
Methodology: In this research, factors affecting inflation in Lorestan province were investigated. For this, at first, the research model includes the inflation rate in the province as a dependent variable and the per capita production of the province, the ratio of industrial units of the province to the country, the amount of loans from the province to the country, the ratio of the collected taxes of the province to the gross domestic product of the province, unemployment rate. The province, amount of construction budget of the province, exchange rate, liquidity growth rate and government budget deficit were determined as independent variables. After that, the research model was estimated using the fuzzy regression method for the time period of 1379-1401. The results showed that the factors causing inflation in Lorestan province are divided into national and provincial levels. The factors that cause inflation at the national level are the exchange rate, liquidity growth rate and government budget deficit, all of which have a positive and significant effect on inflation. The results showed that among the provincial factors, the per capita production of the province, the construction budget of the province and the ratio of bank facilities had a negative effect on the inflation rate, in other words, these factors caused a decrease in the inflation rate in the province. Among these factors, the share of the construction budget and the ratio of bank facilities in reducing the inflation rate has been higher than the per capita production of the province.
Findings and discussion: The results indicate that the variables of the ratio of taxes to the per capita production of the province, the unemployment rate of the province and the ratio of industrial units of the province to the country had a positive effect on the inflation rate in the province. In other words, the increase of these factors has been accompanied by the increase of inflation in the province. Among these factors, the unemployment rate of the province had the greatest impact on the inflation rate, which indicates the existence of inflationary stagnation in the province. After the unemployment rate, the ratio of industrial units of the province to the country has played the biggest role in the inflation of the province. According to the results, it can be seen that one of the main reasons for the high inflation rate in the province compared to the average inflation in the country is the lack of supply or production in the province. This finding is confirmed by the existence of a positive relationship between inflation and unemployment, which indicates the stagnation of inflation in the province.
Conclusions and policy implications: It is suggested that in order to reduce the provincial inflation rate, the conditions of production in the province should be facilitated and moves should be made in order to eliminate production obstacles. Also, giving more credit and bank facilities to productive activities at the provincial level can act as a reducer of inflation rate in Lorestan province in the medium and long term. In this context, it is suggested that in order to achieve a better result, there should be a careful monitoring of the allocation of bank credits, especially the direction of bank credits towards semi-stagnant or closed enterprises that are located in industrial towns is emphasized. takes
According to the results, another important factor in causing inflation is the low ratio of the production units of the province to the country, which has aggravated the inflation of the province. The lower the number of production units in the province, the more goods are purchased from other provinces, and due to the cost of transportation, the price of goods in the province increases and shows higher inflation compared to the whole country. Therefore, it is suggested to identify the most imported goods from distant provinces to Lorestan province with a detailed assessment, and by directing bank credits to the productive activities of these goods, and also allocating construction budgets to create infrastructure. Necessary efforts should be made in order to set up these production units in the province.