نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 عضو هیأت علمی دانشکدهی اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی
2 عضو گروه پژوهشی اقتصاد جهاد دانشگاهی واحد تربیت مدرس
3 کارشناس اقتصاد وزارت امور اقتصادی و دارایی
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
According to meteorology experts, the average rainfall in the current year has decreased to around 70% to 80%, which is the worst in the past 45 years. The initial estimates of such a situation show a decrease of 20% to 25% in the agricultural output. In this article, we show that, due to intersectoral relationship between agriculture and the other sectors of the economy, the fall in the agricultural output directly and indirectly reduces the output of the other sectors and the total output, factor income, and household income as well. Such observation raises the question, “to what extent the fall in the output of agricultural as a purchaser from the other sectors and as a seller to them would affect the total output, factor and household income of the country?” The use of conventional SAM models is not appropriate and, therefore, requires modified SAM models based on the Supply-Driven SAM. Using the 2006 SAM, the overall results show that a 25% decrease in the agricultural output as a purchasing sector brings about a 3.2% decrease in GDP of the country, whereas the corresponding decrease as a selling sector is 4.2%.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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