نااِطمینانی درآمد نفت و نابرابری توزیع درآمد با تأکید بر نقش تحریم‌ها در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد فیروزکوه، گروه اقتصاد، فیروزکوه

2 دکترای علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه سمنان، هیات علمی مدعو، گروه مدیریت و حسابداری، موسسه اموزش عالی رحمان، رامسر، ایران

چکیده

بهبود توزیع درآمد به عنوان یکی از مولفه‌های توسعه اقتصادی از جمله اهداف دولت، خصوصاً در سال‌های پس از انقلاب اسلامی به شمار می‌رود. با توجه به وابستگی بودجه دولت به عایدات نفتی و سهم بالای یارانه‌ها در بودجه سالانه، نوسانات بازار جهانی نفت، تحریم‌های اعمال شده بر این حوزه و به دنبال آن بروز نااطمینانی در تحقق درآمدهای نفتی، بودجه دولت و نحوه توزیع درآمد را متأثر ساخته است. در این مطالعه به منظور بررسی تأثیرگذاری سرریز تکانه‌های (اخبار خوب و بد) بازار نفت و تحریم‌ها، همچنین تاثیر نااطمینانی این بخش بر شاخص نابرابری توزیع درآمد از مدل
 VARMAX GARCH-in-Mean Asymmetric BEKK در بازه زمانی 1370:1 تا  1398:4 استفاده گردیده است. نتایج نشان داد که تکانه‌های مثبت درآمد نفت منجر به بهبود توزیع درآمد در کوتاه‌مدت شده است. علاوه بر شاخص توزیع درآمد وجود اثرات (خودی) نامتقارن تکانه‌ها (اخبار خوب و بد) بر تلاطم سایر متغیرها (شامل تورم، رشد اقتصادی و شاخص تحریم) نیز مورد تأیید قرار گرفته است. بعلاوه شاخص نابرابری توزیع درآمد نسبت به سرایت تلاطم کلیه متغیرها حساس است. به نحوی که افزایش تلاطم در هر یک از متغیرها موجبات افزایش بی‌ثباتی توزیع درآمد را فراهم نموده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Oil Revenue Uncertainty and Income Distribution Inequality: An Emphasis on the Role of Sanctions in the Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parvaneh Salatin 1
  • Tahereh Jahani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh, Iran
2 Ph.D in Economics, Faculty Member of Management and Accounting Department, Ramsar Institute for Higher Education, Ramsar, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Income distribution is one of the economic variables in the field of macroeconomics whose improvement is always a concern of governments. Income distribution shows the share of each member of the society in national income. The most important results of an increase in income inequality are increased rents and corruption, reduced entrepreneurial rate in the society and increased size of government. Also, the existence of a large traditional sector with low potential for modernization and a low and volatile level of economic growth rate is another characteristics of economies with high inequality in income distribution. All economies are somehow faced with macroeconomic shocks, but the dependence of oil-exporting countries on foreign exchange earnings from oil sales has made changes in oil revenues, which is a major cause of economic fluctuations in these countries. In Iran, exports and government budgets depend heavily on oil revenues, so that any move to the global oil market severely affects the government budgets and the structure of the economy. Thus, the prominent role of oil revenues in the structure of the government budgets and the social security programs has distinguished the Iranian economy from other economies. Studies show that countries with a high share of natural resource exports experience two to three times more fluctuations in their foreign trade than other countries. Oil wealth harms the poor by creating economic fluctuations in the countries that export this product through two channels that include creating economic shocks and destabilizing government revenues, and increasing income inequality. Therefore, considering the importance of the subject, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of shocks and uncertainty of oil revenues and sanctions on the income distribution in the Iranian economy.
Methodology: In this study, in order to investigate the impacts of oil market shocks (good and bad news) and sanctions as well as the effects of uncertainty in the income distribution inequality, the index of VARMAX GARCH-in-Mean Asymmetric BEKK model has been used for the period of 1991: 1 to 2019: 1.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that positive shocks to the oil revenues led to improved revenue distribution in the short term. One of the strengths of the present study is to consider the effects of the structural failure of the variance of variables in the studied model, which has led to an increase in the accuracy of estimating the model coefficients. The significance of the structural failure coefficients (across the origin) in the equations of variance indicates that, in terms of structural failure (variance) in the model, the amount of turbulence in all the variables increased, so in the period when production variance had structural failure compared to the period when there was no structural failure, there was less relative stability in the economic growth. In addition, the results of estimating the research model confirm the existence of asymmetric effects of shocks (good and bad news) on the turbulence of all the variables, so that the intensity of these asymmetric effects in the turbulence of oil revenues, economic growth and inflation was relatively higher. These variables are highly sensitive to the arrival of bad news, and this type of news is an important factor for the instability of the variables studied in this period. According to the estimation of the GARCH sector coefficients, the turbulence of all the variables is transmitted to the turbulence of the income distribution inequality index, and the instability in each of these sectors leads to its transfer to the income distribution index. Also, the significance of the estimated coefficients in the GARCH sector confirmed the transfer of the sanctions turbulent overflow to all the sectors, including income distribution, which confirms the effective role of sanctions in creating instability in Iran's macroeconomy. Therefore, if the sanctions continue, the establishment of relative stability will face a serious challenge.
Conclusion: Despite the view of many economic thinkers that one of the main causes of poverty and income inequality is lack of capital, and money accumulation, the experience of many oil-exporting countries, including Iran, with regard to oil revenues shows the opposite. Many studies have shown that, despite the abundance of oil resources and high government revenues from oil revenues in countries with oil reserves, including Iran, income inequality is exacerbated. This is due to their lack of attention to tax revenues, over-dependence on oil revenues, lack of strong links between oil-related industries and other economic sectors, the lack of proper influence of this sector on employment, and the orientation of public spending towards the wealthy classes,. In contrast, studies in developed countries indicate that reducing inequality and improving income distribution by increasing transfer costs and targeted subsidies from sources of increased energy revenue have led to improved health and education indicators.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Income inequality
  • Oil revenue uncertainty
  • Sanctions
  • Asymmetric effects

مراجع

Abasi Nami, H. (2021). "Modeling and Forecasting Crude Oil Price Volatility and Value at Risk using GARCH and Single Regime Change Models". Energy Economy Studies 17(68): 141-174. (In Persian).
Abounoori, E. & Khanalipoor, A. (2009). "Does the Uncertainty Resulting from Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Affect its Supply? Application of ARCH, GARCH". Journal of Economic Research 30(91): 21-48. (In Persian).
Alvarado, R. Tillaguango, B. López-Sánchez, M. Ponce, P. & Işık, C. (2021). "Heterogeneous Impact of Natural Resources on Income Inequality: the Role of the Shadow Economy and Human Capital Index". Economic Analysis and Policy 69: 690-704.
Amuzegar, J. (2001). Managing the Oil Wealth: OPEC's Windfalls and Pitfalls, IB Tauris.
Antonakakis, N. Chatziantoniou, I. & Filis, G. (2014). "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Economic Policy Uncertainty". Energy Economics 44: 433-447.
Apergis, N. & Katsaiti, M. S. (2018). "Poverty and the Resource Curse: Evidence from a Global Panel of Countries". Research in Economics 72(2): 211-223.
Basu, S. & Bundick, B. (2017). "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand". Econometrica 85(3): 937-958.
Bhattacharyya, S. & Williamson, J. G. (2016). "Distributional Impact of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia over a Century". CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9582, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2307405.
Bidabad, B. & Peykarjoo, K. (2007). "Simulation and Prediction of Global Oil Prices". Economic Research Paper 4(27): 83-117. (In Persian).
Bredin, D. Elder, J. & Fountas, S. (2008). "The Effects of Uncertainty about Oil Prices in G-7". UCD Geary Institute Discussion Paper Series 200840.
Breen, R. & Garca-Pealosa, C. (2005). "Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Volatility: an Empirical Investigation". Review of Development Economics 9: 380-398.
Brown, S. P. & Yücel, M. K. (2002). "Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: an Interpretative Survey". The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42(2): 193-208.
Cevik, N. K. Cevik, E. I. & Dibooglu, S. (2020). "Oil Prices, Stock Market Returns and Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from Turkey". Journal of Policy Modeling 42(3): 597-614.
Coleman, J. (1968). "The Concept of Equality of Educational Opportunity". Harvard Educational Review 38(1): 7-22.
De Miguel, C. Manzano, B. & Martin-Moreno, J. M. (2003). "Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations". The Energy Journal, The Bi-Monthly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation, 24(2).
Degiannakis, S. Filis, G. & Arora, V. (2018). "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: a Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence". The Energy Journal, The Bi-Monthly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation, 39(5).
Dietrich, A. & Weber, C. (2018). "What Drives Profitability of Grid-Connected Residential PV Storage Systems? A Closer Look with Focus on Germany". Energy Economics 74: 399-416.
Ebrahimi, S. (2011). "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Resulting Uncertainty on the Economic Growth of Selected Oil Countries". Quarterly Journal of Business Research 59(15): 83-105. (In Persian).
Elder, J. & Serletis, A. (2009). "Oil Price Uncertainty in Canada". Energy Economics 31(6): 852-856.
Esfahani, H. S. Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M. H. (2013). "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy". The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 53(3): 221-237.
Farzanegan, M. R. & Habibpour, M. M. (2017). "Resource Rents Distribution, Income Inequality and Poverty in Iran". Energy Economics 66: 35-42.
Farzanegan, M. R. Mohammadikhabbazan, M. & Sadeghi, H. (2015). "Effect of Oil Sanctions on the Macroeconomic and Household Welfare in Iran: New Evidence from a CGE Model". MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics. (No. 07-2015).
Fawaz, F. & Frey, E. (2020). "The Impact of Abundancy of Resources and Regime Type on Income Inequality: The Case of Less-Developed Countries". Journal of Social Sciences 41(1): 1-7.
Fluckiger, Yves. (2007). "The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Distribution of Income in Switzerland". Work Paper.
Fum, R. M. & Hodler, R. (2010). "Natural Resources and Income Inequality: The Role of Ethnic Divisions". Economics Letters 107(3): 360-363.
Galor, O. & Tsiddon, D. (1996). "Income Distribution and Growth: the Kuznets Hypothesis Revisited". Economica S103-S117.
Goderis, B. & Malone, S. W. (2011). "Natural Resource Booms and Inequality: Theory and Evidence". Scandinavian Journal of Economics 113(2): 388-417.
Golestani, M. & Rahmani, T. (2009). "An Analysis of the Curse of Oil Resources and Rent-Seeking on Income Distribution in Selected Oil-Rich Countries". Economic Research Quarterly 44(89): 57-86. (In Persian).
Grier, K. B. Henry, Ó. T. Olekalns, N. & Shields, K. (2004). "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth". Journal of Applied Econometrics 19(5): 551-565.
Hamilton, J. (1994). Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Hassanzadeh, M. Sadeghi, H. Uosefi, A. Sahabi, B. Ghanbari, A. (2012). "Investigating the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Welfare of Households in Different Income Deciles". Economic Research Quarterly 4: 55-77. (In Persian).
Hausmann, R. & Gavin, M. (1996). "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: the Policy Challenge for Latin America". IDB Working Paper No. 259, pp. 33, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1815944 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1815944.
Herrera, A. M. Hu, L. & Pastor, D. (2018). "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Volatility". International Journal of Forecasting 34(4): 622-635.
Howie, P. & Atakhanova, Z. (2014). "Resource Boom and Inequality: Kazakhstan as a Case Study". Resources Policy 39: 71-79.
Hsieh, D. A. (1989). "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates". Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 7(3): 307-317.
Jafari, M. & Shayeghanmehr, S. (2021). "Income Inequality and the Curse of Oil: A Study of Oil-Rich Countries". Energy Economy Studies 17(71): 67-112. (In Persian).
Jerjerzadeh, A. R. & Eghbali, A. R. (2005). "Investigating the Effect of Oil Revenues on Income Distribution in Iran". Quarterly Journal of Environmental and Energy Economics 2: 1-22. (In Persian).
Kang, W. & Ratti, R. A. (2013). "Structural Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty". Economic Modelling 35: 314-319.
Kang, W. & Ratti, R. A. (2015). "Oil Shocks, Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China". Economics of Transition 23(4): 657-676.
Kelikume, I. & Muritala, O. (2019). "The Impact of Changes in Oil Price on Stock Market: Evidence from Africa". International Journal of Management, Economics and Social Sciences (IJMESS) 8(3): 169-194.
Keshavarz Haddad, Gh. R. & Abedin, M. R. (2017). "Sanction and Trade Deflection: A Decade of Experience from Iran". The Conference in Bergamo University.
Khan, M. I. Teng, J. Z. Khan, M. K. Jadoon, A. U. & Khan, M. F. (2021). "The Impact of Oil Prices on Stock Market Development in Pakistan: Evidence with a Novel Dynamic Simulated ARDL Approach". Resources Policy 70: 101899.
Kim, D. H. & Lin, S. C. (2018). "Oil Abundance and Income Inequality". Environmental and Resource Economics 71(4): 825-848.
Kim, D. H. Chen, T. C. & Lin, S. C. (2020). "Does Oil Drive Income Inequality? New Panel Evidence". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 55: 137-152.
Li, H. Squire, L. & Zou, H. F. (1998). "Explaining International and Intertemporal Variations in Income Inequality". The Economic Journal 108(446): 26-43.
Li, L. Yin, L. & Zhou, Y. (2016). "Exogenous Shocks and the Spillover Effects between Uncertainty and Oil Price". Energy Economics 54: 224-234.
Mahdavi, A. Mehrara, M. Memariuan, M. H. (2019). "Investigating the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Uncertainty in Foreign Exchange, Gold and Stock Markets in Iran". Economic Research Quarterly 54(3): 739-769. (In Persian).
 Maleki Shahrivar, M. (2018). "Short-term and Long-term Effects of Oil Revenues on Economic Poverty in Urban Areas in Iran". Applied Economics Quarterly 7(23): 57-76. (In Persian).
Mallaye, D. Timba, G. T. & Yogo, U. T. (2015). "Oil Rent and Income Inequality in Developing Economies: Are they Friends or Foes?". halshs-01100843f, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International.
Marx, K. (1975). The Poverty of Philosophy, Moscow: Progress Publishers. (Chapter 2, Section 5).
Mehrara, M. & Mojab, R. (2010). "Real and Nominal Uncertainty in Iran (1960-2006)". International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 48(5): 194-203.
Mehrara, M. Firouzjaee, B. A. & Gholami, A. (2011). "The Corruption and Income Distribution in OPEC and OECD Countries: a Comparative Study". International Journal of Economics and Research 2(6): 51-61.
Merhara, M. & Mohamadiuan, M. (2014). "Investigating Factors Affecting Income Distribution in Iran's Economy with Bayesian Econometric Approach". Economic Researches of Iran 61: 83-116. (In Persian).
Mohtadi, H. & Roe, T. L. (2003). "Democracy, Rent Seeking, Public Spending and Growth". Journal of Public Economics 87(3-4): 445-466.
Mokni, K. (2020). "Time-varying Effect of Oil Price Shocks on the Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Oil-importing and Oil-exporting Countries". Energy Reports 6: 605-619.
Montinola, G. and Jackman, R. (2002). "Sources of Corruption: A Cross-country Study". British Journal of Political Science 32: 147-170.
Moradi, M. A. (2010). "The Effect of Oil on Iran's Macroeconomic Indicators with an Emphasis on Transmission Mechanisms and Effects". Economic Research Quarterly 2: 115-140. (In Persian).
 Noferesti, M. & Mohamadi, F. (2009). "Investigating the Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks on Income Distribution in Iran's Economy". Iranian Economic Research Quarterly 38: 31-53. (In Persian).
Noriega, A. E. & Soria, L. M. (2005). Structural Breaks, Orders of Integration, and the Neutrality Hypothesis: Further Evidence, Mimeo.
Rahman, S. & Serletis, A. (2012). "Oil Price Uncertainty and the Canadian Economy: Evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, Asymmetric BEKK Model". Energy Economics 34(2): 603-610.
Rezaai, M. Uavari, K. Ezati, M. & Etesami, M. (2015). "Investigating the Effect of Abundance of Natural Resources on Financial Repression and Economic Growth through the Channel of Influencing Income Distribution". Quarterly Journal of Iran's Energy Economy Research 4(14): 89-122. (In Persian).
Rondina, F. (2010). "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty about the Effects of Oil Prices on the Global Economy Activity". Institute for Economic Analysis, CSIC and Barcelona GSE Retrieved from http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/seminars/rondina.pdf.
Ross, M. L. (2001). "Does Oil Hinder Democracy?". World Politics 53(3): 325-361.
Ross, M. L. (2001). Extractive Sectors and the Poor, Oxfam America.
Rousseau, P. L. & Yilmazkuday, H. (2009). "Inflation, Financial Development, and Growth: A Trilateral Analysis". Economic Systems 33(4): 310-324.
Runfang, Y. Jiangze, D. & Xiaotao, L. (2017). "Improved Forecast Ability of Oil Market Volatility based on Combined Markov Switching and GARCH-class Model". Procedia Computer Science 122: 415-422.
Sachs, J.D. & Warner, A.M. (1995b). "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth". NBER Working Paper No. 5398.
Sahebhonar, H. & Nadri, K. (2013). "Economic Analysis of the Effect of Increasing Oil Revenues on Income Distribution with the BVAR Approach: a Case Study of Iran's Economy". Iranian Energy Economy Quarterly 2(9): 115-149. (In Persian).
Samadi, A. H. Hadiuan, E. & Jafari, M. (2013). "Investigating the Effect of Permanent and Temporary Fluctuations in OPEC Oil Prices". Quarterly Journal of Iran's Energy Economy Research 2(7): 75-101. (In Persian).
Sandbu, M. E. (2006). "Natural Wealth Accounts: A Proposal for Alleviating the Natural Resource Curse". World Development 34(7): 1153-1170.
Segal, G. Shaliastovich, I. & Yaron, A. (2015). "Good and Bad Uncertainty: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Implications". Journal of Financial Economics 117(2): 369-397.
Shirkavand, S. (2004). "The Trends of Subsidies in Iran (1973–2003) and the Effects of Cash Payments of Subsidies". In Working Paper, Imam Sadegh University.
Simionescu, M. (2014). "The Accuracy Assessment of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based on Econometric Models for Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance 8: 671-677.
Sinha, S. & Lipton, M. (1999). Undesirable Fluctuations, Risk and Poverty: A Review, (Documento Mimeografiado). Washington, DC: Banco Mundial.
Taylor, J. W. (2004). "Volatility Forecasting with Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing". International Journal of Forecasting 20(2): 273-286.
Trujillo-Barrera, A. Mallory, M. & Garcia, P. (2012). "Volatility Spillovers in US Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets". Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics Jstore 37(9): 247-262.
Uhlmann, A. J. (2016). Family, Gender and Kinship in Australia: The Social and Cultural Logic of Practice and Subjectivity, Routledge.
Verhami, V. & Gholizadeh, R. (2015). "Investigating the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on Iran's Gini Coefficient using the VECM Method". Alzahra University Economic Progress Policy Quarterly 3(9): 53-72. (In Persian).
Verleger Jr, P. K. (1993). Adjusting to Volatile Energy Prices, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
Wen, F. Gong, X. & Cai, S. (2016). "Forecasting the Volatility of Crude Oil Futures using HAR-type Models with Structural Breaks". Energy Economics 59: 400-413.
Xu, X. & Taylor, S. J. (1995). "Conditional Volatility and the Informational Efficiency of the PHLX Currency Options Market". Journal of Banking & Finance 19(5): 803-821.
Zarei, P. Tehranchiuan, A. & Rodary, S. (2021). "Is Oil a Curse or a Blessing for Iran's Financial Development?". Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics Studies 17(70): 85-116. (In Persian).
Živkov, D. & Đurašković, J. (2022). "How does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Output in the Central and Eastern European Economies? –the Bayesian-based Approaches". Applied Economic Analysis (Ahead-of-Print).
سیاست گذاری اقتصادی
دوره 14، شماره 27
شهریور 1401
صفحه 303-338

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار