عنوان مقاله [English]
Introduction: The financial system of an economic enterprise, in simple terms, is a set of financial institutions, financial instruments and financial markets that are responsible for financial decisions. Small and medium-sized enterprises use various financial instruments to provide the financial resources that they need. They also use the surplus funds provided by financial institutions and other economic enterprises for investment purposes and provided to applicants in the form of facilities and loans. This compensates the budget deficit of small and medium enterprises. In this article, the methods of financing small and medium enterprises and the risk associated with each method are studied and analyzed.
Methodology: This research addresses the comparative analysis of financing methods of small and medium enterprises (SME) with a focus on OECD countries. By reviewing the research literature and using the opinions of experts in the field of financing, the most important risks of small and medium enterprises are identified and then classified. In the final parts of this study, the types of risks are identified through interviews with financing experts and use of a questionnaire. The risks of financing methods are prioritized, and seven financing methods are ranked in terms of credit risk.
In the second part of the paper, by using factor analysis and the method of principal components, credit risk indicators are aggregated into a single index (representing the credit risk variable). Then, this variable is included in the decision tree as a dependent variable and the sub-indices are considered as independent variables. Decision tree is one of the most famous and oldest methods of making a classification model. It is a non-parametric method of classifying variables and includes various algorithms. In order to design a decision tree, the CHAID method is used. This method is also known for identifying automatic chi-square interactions in each step. The predictor variable that has the highest correlation with the dependent variable is used in the model and the decision tree.
Results and Discussion: By reviewing how small and medium enterprises are financed in OECD countries, it was found that those countries use various methods for financing small and medium enterprises. In many countries, there has been an increasing trend in the share of long-term loans compared to short-term credits. Based on the evidence provided, there is a significant difference between alternative financing methods in terms of the average scores of credit, financial, legal, social and environmental risks. Based on these findings, the credit risk in the method of financing small and medium enterprises through the facility channel is higher than in other methods, and the lowest credit risk associated with the method of financing is from the company's internal resources.
According to the results of the decision tree, the financing method of small and medium enterprises has also been effective as a control variable on the level of credit risk of these companies. Management skills in small and medium enterprises are the most important factor to explain the credit risk trend of these companies. Therefore, in order to develop a credit risk control strategy in this group of companies, the suppliers of these companies' financial resources should first pay attention to the ability and management skills of these companies. Based on historical records, if the managers of small and medium enterprises do not have acceptable skills in running the company, it is likely that the company will not be able to fulfill its obligations in the near future.
The quality of financial statements is also very important in predicting the credit risks of this group of companies. Based on this, banks and other institutions that provide financial resources for small and medium-sized companies should evaluate various indicators of the quality of financial statements in these companies in order to develop a suitable strategy to reduce risks. Dividend policies and current ratio of the company should also be considered in the credit risk control strategy of small and medium enterprises.
Conclusion: Considering that the goal is to reduce credit risk, financiers should try to increase the contribution of small and medium enterprises in financing their costs. If the goal is to reduce the total risk, however, the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises by business angels is less risky, and business angels should be used to finance small and medium-sized enterprises. The government can also help increase the investment of business angels in small and medium enterprises by creating various incentives, including tax incentives.