برآورد حمایت از بخش کشاورزی با تاکید بر سیاست های ارزی

Purpose

The future growth of the demand for food consumption will bring significant opportunities for agriculture in the world, both quantitatively (the amount of consumption and variety) and qualitatively. Nevertheless, this sector is facing many challenges to respond to the future demand in a sustainable way due to the changing conditions of production, including weather, etc. To strengthen the capacity of this sector to respond to future challenges and opportunities, the use of different policies and tools is always considered in the development plans of countries, and different countries of the world support this sector in various ways.

The investigation of political developments in the field of agriculture in the world shows that a number of countries have always provided support based on past policies and a number of countries have taken new measures. But the type and amount of support is not clear in many countries. In this regard, it is interesting to note that industrialized and developed countries, as supporters of the free market system, provide the most support to the agricultural sector.

Methodology

In most countries, to determine the amount of support for the agricultural sector and estimate and quantify it based on the indicators introduced and modified by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It includes agricultural producer support estimate (the annual monetary value of gross transfers from consumers and taxpayers to agricultural producer), agricultural general services support, agricultural consumers support estimate (the annual monetary value of gross transfers from (to) consumers of agricultural commodities) and total support estimate for the agricultural sector.

Findings and Discussion

In case of an increase in marketing costs, the price supports caused by the government's pricing policies and exchange rate and budget support will increase with the aim of supporting the community of agricultural producers. The foreign exchange policy of allocating government currency to the import of agricultural products has included different results every year despite the expectation. In 2016, this policy measure has improved the situation of supporting agricultural producers. Whereas in 2017, the establishment of preferential currency has reduced the support of all agricultural products.

The continuation of the establishment of official currency and the stabilization of the currency system in the years 1396 to 1398 has negatively evaluated the protection of consumers. Different currency policies have achieved different results every year. It can be seen that in the years 1396 and 1398, the policy of allocating preferential currency to the import of agricultural products has worked to the detriment of the consumers of the agricultural sector. In 2017, different conditions have been established and the establishment of government currency allocation policy has increased the support of agricultural consumers.

On average, the support of general services takes a different share of the total support of the agricultural sector in each year. In 2016, it can be seen that with the change of foreign exchange policy and the allocation of government currency to the import of agricultural products and the strengthening of producer support, the share of support for public services is equal to 13%. In 2017, considering the total support, this percentage is negative and equal to 22%. In 2016, the total support for the agricultural sector has been evaluated positively. While in terms of government currency allocation, total support in 1397 and 1398 has been negative.

Conclusion and Policy Implication

The negative results in the producer, consumer and total support indicators show that the combination of support policies and its combination with macro policies and exogenous variables such as border prices have not been effective and sometimes with attention with a wide range of support tools, alternative policies with more optimal results can be chosen.

Mandatory and suppressive pricing policies at the producer level can bring additional concerns to support domestic producers at the same time as global prices increase and the value of the national currency weakens. In the current situation of Iran and the increase in the exchange rate of domestic currency with foreign currency, it is necessary to observe the condition of caution in applying such policies.

It is obvious that the budgetary restrictions cause, while the budgetary support decreases, the tendency to take distorting policies that impose less financial burden on the government increases. Therefore, it seems that by gradually moving from applying and adopting distorting policies towards budgetary and support payments, especially in the field of infrastructures, more favorable and optimal results can be experienced.