برآورد اثرات انتقالی نرخ ارز بر قیمت زیربخشهای صنعت در ایران با رویکرد بیزی

Purpose: It is common knowledge that the exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables whose changes strongly influence a country's balance of payments and international competitiveness. Exchange rate fluctuations affect the production costs of companies whose products have an import component. The manufactring sector is also affected by the foreign exchange market and its fluctuations, as it interacts with the global economy through the export of products and the import of means of production. The economic policy maker should know how changes in the nominal exchange rate will affect prices at the sectoral level. This paper aims to examine the impact of the exchange rate on manufacturing prices both at the general level and at the sub-sector level.

Methodology: The methodology used in this study is based on Bayesian vector autoregression models. The data used are seasonal and cover the period from spring 1375 to summer 1402. In this study, the BVAR model was used for 22 manufacturing subsectors at the two-digit ISIC code level and for the entire manufacure sector, resulting in a total of 23 models.

Before estimations, the data were tested at the level to determine whether the data had a unit root or not. In addition, before estimating the VAR model, the appropriate number of axis intercepts for the model should be determined. The likelihood ratio test was used for this purpose. For this purpose, the LR test is used to sequentially test the null hypothesis that the interval between the equations is not significant and the counter-hypothesis that at least one of the coefficients is non-zero. After selecting the variables and estimating the models, the pass-through of the exchange rates to the different prices was also examined by analysing the shock-response functions. Given the different effects of the exchange rate pass-through on the chain of price indices, the question arises as to how the increase in the exchange rate affects the individual price indices as a whole and what percentage share this increase has in the individual price indices. They reflect the exchange rate pass-through. To answer this question, a method introduced by Farooqi (2006) is used to answer this question. For this purpose, and after estimating the BVAR model, the shock response functions are defined cumulatively. Then, the size of the cumulative effect caused by the exchange rate change on each price index should be compared with the size of the cumulative effect of the currency shock on the exchange rate.

Findings and Discussion: The results show that the price indices for imported and exported goods at the level of total manufacturing do not react in the same way to an exchange rate shock. The price index of imported goods (76.5 percent) and then exported goods (32.3 percent) show the highest increase in the first year compared to the other price indices. The effect of the exchange rate shock on the price index of manufactured goods in the first months is very similar to the effect of the price of imported goods and reaches its peak in the first year, but after that the effect of the exchange rate on the prices of manufactured goods gradually disappears by the end of the second year. This suggests that the impact of the exchange rate on domestic manufacturing prices is incomplete. The results also show that the "Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel" and the "Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments and watches" and "Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment" industries react most strongly to the shock. By contrast, the sectors showing the least reaction to the exchange rate shock are "Manufacture of textiles", "Tanning and dressing of leather, manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness and footwear", "Manufacture of wearing apparel, dressing and dyeing of fur" and "Manufacture of tobacco products”.

Conclusions and Policy Implications: According to the results of the study, it is recommended that the policy of stabilizing the foreign exchange market be continued. This is because the increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase in production costs and affects various industries in the country. And finally, it increases the price of products. Therefore, the continued stabilization of the foreign exchange market will reduce the inflation rate in this direction.