نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دکتری دانشگاه لرستان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The main objective of the present study is to investigate the cyclical behavior of public debt and the role of natural resource rents in strengthening or weakening the cyclicality of public debt in Iran from 1996 to 2023. Time series analyses in this study, including unit root and cointegration tests and estimation of the cointegration vectors and causality relationship, were performed using Fourier approximation. Fourier approximation-based analyses allow for detecting smooth and sharp breaks without determining the shape, location, and number of structural breaks in advance. The results of estimating cointegration vectors using the Fourier FMOLS method show that public debt has a pro-cyclical behavior in the Iranian economy. Also, the interactive effect of natural resource rent and business cycles on public debt is positive and significant, indicating that natural resource rent helps to strengthen the pro-cyclical behavior of public debt. The results of Toda and Yamamoto's Fourier causality test also indicate a one-way causality relationship from natural resource rents to business cycles and from business cycles to public debt, as well as a two-way causality relationship between natural resource rents and public debt. The results obtained are robust to changes in the model and how business cycles are extracted. Accordingly, it is necessary to accumulate a portion of natural resource revenues in stabilization funds that have sufficiently high institutional quality to cover budget deficits using the assets of these funds during recessions. Accordingly, it is necessary to accumulate a portion of natural resource revenues in stabilization funds that have sufficiently high institutional quality to cover budget deficits using the assets of these funds during recessions.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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